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IWR reports

Special Series

Risk Analysis and Dam Safety Program

Series No

Report No

Title/Description/Authors (listed alphabetically)

NTIS/Vol/Pg

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1987-RPT-RSK-07

87-R-7 

Socioeconomic Considerations in Dam Safety Risk Analysis
The analytical review and summary critique of literature related to risk analysis was conducted for the purpose of highlighting those ideas, concepts and methods that have a bearing on conventional approaches to evaluating uncertainties of natural and technological hazards and the risks imposed by alternative solutions. The critique of the philosophical and analytical bases of risk analysis was further directed toward the specific problem of dam safety risk analysis. Dam safety is unique in that it represents an extreme situation characteristic of a low probability/high consequence event. Conventional rules of economic analysis are difficult to extrapolate and extend to such events. This analytical review was conducted as part of the Corps' Risk Analysis Research Program, managed by the Institute for Water Resources, of which the dam safety risk analysis research effort is but one part of the broader range of applications of risk analysis to Corps problems.
Duanne D Baumann ; Harold C Cochrane ; Renee Ferrell-Dillar
Aug 1987

NTIS: AD-A186149

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 178

1987-RPT-RSK-07     

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( pdf, 1.7 MB )  

1988-RPT-RSK-04

88-R-4 

Multiobjective Risk Partitioning: An Application to Dam Safety Risk Analysis
Risk, a measure of the probability and severity of adverse events, has commonly been measure by the traditional Bayesian expected value approach. While a reasonable measure for some cases, the expected value approach is inadequate and may lead to fallacious conclusions when applied to risk associated with extreme and catastrophic events and where public policy issues are involved. Furthermore, risk analysis is often divided into two components: risk assessment of hazards, both natural and technological, and risk management options designed to solve or ameliorate a hazardous situation.
Yacov Y Haimes ; P. O Karlsson ; J Mitsiopoulos ; R. Petrakian
Apr 1988

NTIS: AD-A197011

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1



1988-RPT-RSK-04     

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( pdf, 7.0 MB )  

1992-RPT-RSK-01A

92-R-1 

Guidelines for Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Water Resources Planning - Volume I; Principles with Technical Appendices
This report is a product of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Risk Analysis Research Program managed by the Institute for Water Resources which is part of the Water Resources Support Center. The report was prepared to fulfill part of several work units in the research program. These work units focused on developing and applying risk analysis methods and techniques to the main Corps areas of flood control and navigation. This report also fulfills part of additional work units on risk preference and risk communication.
Greeley-Polhemus Group, Inc.
Mar 1992

NTIS: AD-A255399

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 173

1992-RPT-RSK-01A     

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( pdf, 983 KB )  

1992-RPT-RSK-01B

92-R-2 

Guidelines for Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Water Resources Planning - Volume II Examples
The Heck Valley Flood Control Case Study is a hypothetical study prepared to illustrate and support the principles and selected techniques described in the Guidelines and Procedures for Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Corps' Civil Works Planning and accompanying Appendices. It uses real data from Corps' projects wherever possible in order to represent realistic situations. The data and issues presented in the case study do not represent or depict any past, present or future Corps' project or study.
Greeley-Polhemus Group, Inc.
Mar 1992

NTIS: AD-A255398

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 158

1992-RPT-RSK-01B     

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( pdf, 1.14 MB )  

1993-RPT-RSK-13A

93-R-13 

Guidebook for Risk Perception and Communication in Water Resources Planning, Part I - Underpinnings and Planning Applications
This report is a product of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments Research Program managed by the Institute for Water Resources which is a unit of the Water Resources Support Center. The report was prepared to fulfill part of several work units in the research program. These work units focused on developing and applying the concepts of risk preference and risk communication to water resources issues. The report conforms to the basic planning model and to the risk and uncertainty analysis recommendations presented in "Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water Related Land Resources Implementation Studies" (P&G).
Clifford S Russell
Oct 1993

NTIS: AD-A281057

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1



1993-RPT-RSK-13A     

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( pdf, 6.7 MB )  

1993-RPT-RSK-13B

93-R-14 

Guidebook for Risk Perception and Communication in Water Resources Planning, Part II - An Annotated Bibliography
This annotated bibliography addresses the water resource planner's need for comprehensive planning guides where risk is an integral factor in the decision process. The Economic and Environmental Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implemented Studies prescribed by the Water Resource Council recognize that risk and uncertainty are inherent in water resources planning. Corps planners must prepare to evaluate risk behavior and the associated perceptions of risk. There also exists a great need for opening a two way avenue of communication between the public and the planners/operators of water resource projects. This report contains PART II of the larger work titled Guidebook For Risk Percepfion and Communication in Water Resources Planning. PART I presents the underlying principles and guidelines for consideration in the Corps planning process.
John F Langowski , Jr.
Oct 1993

NTIS: AD-A281147

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1



1993-RPT-RSK-13B     

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( pdf, 10.9 MB )  

1994-RPT-RSK-05

94-R-5 

Development of Prototype Software for Risk-Based Benefit-Cost Analysis of Major Rehabilitation Proposals Phases I and II
This report documents the work done on the enhancement of a prototype simulation model for the risk-based economic analysis of proposals for major rehabilitation projects of Corps of Engineers' facilities during the period from September 1993 through October 1994. The original concept, design, and prototype development of the model began in December 1992 and the initial phase of the work r the building and testing of a Phase I prototype, concluded in August 1993, with an implemented prototype. This work was documented in an unpublished technical report for the Institute for Water Resources, parts of which are abstracted herein. The success of the initial model development, in particular in terms of ease of use, flexibility and speed of operation as compared to existing, spread-sheet based methods, led to the determination to pursue further prototype development. The current work, Phase I I, included additional efforts involving review of existing rehabilitation proposals, enchancement of the model, enhancement of the user interface, and conceptual design and proof-of-concept testing of a model oriented towards navigation projects.
Walter M Grayman ; Richard M Males ; Craig A Strus
Oct 1994

NTIS: AD-A288580

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 161

1994-RPT-RSK-05     

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( pdf, 1.6 MB )  

1996-RPT-RSK-13

96-R-13 

Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Evaluation: Hydrologic Risk
This report was initiated under the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Dam Safety Research Program. The report was prepared to fulfill part of several work units in the research program. These work units focused on outlining dam safety standards, developing risk and uncertainty concepts, and specifically studying aspects of risks of failure involving dams and spillways constructed by the Corps.
David C Heath ; Jery Stedinger ; Kay Thompson
Mar 1996

NTIS: AD-A316926

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 81

1996-RPT-RSK-13     

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( pdf, 482 KB )  

1996-RPT-RSK-14

96-R-14 

Applied Risk Communication Within the Corps of Engineers
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is encouraging, and in some cases requiring, greater use of risk-based analytical methods in evaluating the engineering and economic performance of its proposed investments. To this end, the Corps perceives a need to improve its co~~unication of risk information among groups within the Corps and with its customers. There exists a considerable volume of literature on the subject of risk communication, but much of its advice is either unrelated to Corps concerns or is too general for applied problems. A workshop comprised of a small team of national and international experts in the field of risk communication was held in concert with Corps personnel. The workshop was conducted for the purpose of highlighting ideas, concepts, and methods of risk communication and discussing the bearing on conventional . application of such approaches to Corps practices. This workshop and review was conducted as part of the Corps' Risk Analysis For Water Resources Investments Research Program, managed by the Institute For Water Resources.
Kevin O’Grady ; Clifford S Russell
Mar 1996

NTIS: AD-A317628

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 162

1996-RPT-RSK-14     

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( pdf, 681 KB )  

1996-RPT-RSK-25A

96-R-25 

Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems - Volume 1 - Overview
This report is product of the US Army Corps Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments Research Program. The program is managed by the IWR which is a unit of the Water Resources Support Center. The report was prepared to fulfill part of several work units in the research program.
Yacov Y Haimes ; Roman Krzysztofowicz ; James H Lambert ; Duan Li ; Vijay Tulsiani
Dec 1995

NTIS: AD-A325950

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 2



1996-RPT-RSK-25A     

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( pdf, 4.2 MB )  

1996-RPT-RSK-25B

96-R-26 

Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems - Volume 2 - Technical
This report is product of the US Army Corps Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments Research Program. The program is managed by the IWR which is a unit of the Water Resources Support Center. The report was prepared to fulfill part of several work units in the research program.
Yacov Y Haimes ; Roman Krzysztofowicz ; James H Lambert ; Duan Li ; Vijay Tulsiani
Dec 1995

NTIS: AD-A326242

Volume: 2
Total Volumes: 2



1996-RPT-RSK-25B     

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( pdf, 6.5 MB )  

1997-SP-RSK-28

SP-28 

Hydrology & Hydraulics Workshop on Risk Based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction Studies
The workshop on Risk Based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction Studies provided an opportunity to assess the progress made singe the Montecello, MN. The objective of the workshop were to: review the present policy and procedures for performing risk base analysis studies, and identify key issues and discuss their means of resolution, and define and discuss Corps procedures and requirements for levee certification. The workshop proceeding are contained herein.
Michael W. Burnham ; Darryl W Davis HEC
Oct 1997

NTIS: 

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 12

1997-SP-RSK-28     

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( pdf, 18.5 MB )  

1998-POL-RSK-02

98-PS-2 

Empirical Studies of the Effect of Flood Risk on Housing Prices
The motivation for this study stems from criticism of the Corps of Engineers as being biased against non-structural flood damage reduction measures as opposed to structural measures (e.g., Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee, "Galloway Report", 1994). One possible source of bias may be the inability of the Corps to economically justify permanent evacuation projects under current evaluation procedures given by the Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implmentation Studies. This issue and the level of Corps involvement in permanent evacuation projects have become policy questions of increasing importance to the Corps.
Phillip T Chao ; James L Floyd ; William C Holliday
Feb 1998

NTIS: AD-A349468/FA

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 72

1998-POL-RSK-02     

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( pdf, 419 KB )  

2002-RPT-RSK-03

02-R-3 

Estimating Life Loss for Dam Safety Risk Assessment--A Review and New Approach
High hazard, low frequency events have the potential to cause considerable damage to property and loss of human life. Some events are outside human control, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and precipitation-induced floods. Some events are a direct result of 2 human or engineering failures, such as airplane crashes, toxic chemical spills, or accidents at nuclear reactors. Dam failures generally fall in between these extremes, sometimes resulting from faulty design under otherwise favorable environmental conditions and sometimes failin despite superior engineering after being overwhelmed by an extreme flood, earthquake, or latent geotechnical defect.
David S Bowles ; Duane M McClelland
Jul 2002

NTIS: 

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 420

2002-RPT-RSK-03     

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( pdf, 8.5 MB )  

2002-RPT-RSK-04

02-R-4 

Beyond Expected Value: Making Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty
Risk is a characteristic of a situation in which a number of outcomes are possible, the particular one that will occur is uncertain and at least one of the possibilities is undesirable. Much of the work of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) is involved with managing the risk associated with natural processes, such as flooding and drought. Safety and quality of human life, large amounts of money and environmental issues are all at stake in the decisions made by the Corps relating to the management of natural risks.
Richard M Males
Sep 2002

NTIS: 

Volume: 1
Total Volumes: 1

Pages: 119

2002-RPT-RSK-04     

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( pdf, 1.33 MB )  

 
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